National Financial Services M&A Transaction Perspective
Bank mergers and acquisitions (M&A) have seen a stronger start to 2025, with a total of 34 transactions announced through March 31, 2025. That is an increase from the 28 transactions announced in the first quarter of 2024. The outcome of the U.S. presidential and congressional elections is likely to continue to provide some lift to bank M&A activity in 2025. However, if the economy starts to falter, driven by substantial and sustained political uncertainty, that could quickly put a damper on hopes for an active year in bank M&A.
Pricing for whole bank and thrift transactions has seen an increase through March 2025, with an average price to tangible book value (P/TBV) of 151% in the quarter compared to 117% through March 2024 and 126% in 2024 as a whole.
Stock prices for banks had finally started to see some recovery through the end of March 2025. The Dow Jones U.S. Banks Index (DJUSBK) was up 15.54% at $638.67 for the 12-month period ended March 31, 2025, while the KBW Nasdaq Bank Index (BKX) was up 16.85% at $122.52 in the same period. However, tariff announcements by the federal government in early April drove sharp drops in bank stocks and the broader stock market before the market recovered to some extent as tariffs were eased or paused as many countries worked to negotiate trade agreements with the United States. As of the date of this writing, bank stocks continue to be well below levels seen at the end of March.
West Region
In the West Region, there were five announced transactions through March 2025, which is the same as the five transactions announced through March 2024. Based on transactions with pricing data available, P/TBV averaged 89% in the West Region in 2024. Based on the two transactions with pricing data available, P/TBV averaged 176% in the West Region through March 2025.
Mid-Atlantic Region
In the Mid-Atlantic Region, there was one announced transaction through March 2025, which is less than the two transactions announced through March 2024. Based on transactions with pricing data available, P/TBV averaged 102% in the Mid-Atlantic Region in 2024. Based on the one transaction with pricing data available, P/TBV averaged 97% in the Mid-Atlantic Region through March 2025.
Midwest Region
In the Midwest Region, there were 13 announced transactions through March 2025, which is greater than the nine transactions announced through March 2024. Based on transactions with pricing data available, P/TBV averaged 142% in the Midwest Region in 2024. Based on the one transaction with pricing data available, P/TBV averaged 131% in the Midwest Region through March 2025.
Northeast Region
In the Northeast Region, there were three announced transactions through March 2025, which is greater than the one transaction announced through March 2024. Based on transactions with pricing data available, P/TBV averaged 137% in the Northeast Region in 2024. There were no transactions with pricing data available in the Northeast Region through March 2025.
Southeast Region
In the Southeast Region, there were six announced transactions through March 2025, which is less than the seven transactions announced through March 2024. Based on transactions with pricing data available, P/TBV averaged 143% in the Southeast Region in 2024. Based on the four transactions with pricing data available, P/TBV averaged 159% in the Southeast Region through March 2025.
Southwest Region
In the Southwest Region, there were five announced transactions through March 2025, which is greater than the four transactions announced through March 2024. Based on transactions with pricing data available, P/TBV averaged 142% in the Southwest Region in 2024. There were no transactions with pricing data available in the Southwest Region through March 2025.
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