National Financial Services M&A Transaction Perspective
Bank mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity has been relatively steady with a total of 126 transactions announced through September 30, 2025. That is an increase from the 93 transactions announced through September 30, 2024. Bank M&A activity for the balance of 2025 could be heavily impacted by economic headwinds and the federal government shutdown that started on October 1, depending on the length of the shutdown and the resulting economic fallout. While a short shutdown could pass almost unnoticed, an extended government shutdown could further weaken economic activity and weigh on financial markets. This could push the Federal Reserve to try to bolster the economy, which is already seeing some signs of weakening. In the most recent data available as of this writing, the unemployment rate crept up to 4.3% in August, and only 22,000 jobs were added, lower than the expected 75,000.1
Pricing for whole bank and thrift transactions has seen an increase through September 2025, with an average price to tangible book value (P/TBV) of 148% in the quarter compared to 124% through September 2024 and 125% in 2024 as a whole.
Stock prices for banks have recovered significantly after the sharp drop in bank stocks and the broader stock market because of trade uncertainties earlier in the year, although they gave up some ground in early October as the federal government shutdown took effect. The Dow Jones U.S. Banks Index (DJUSBK) was up 35.26% at $785.63 for the 12-month period ended September 30, 2025, while the KBW Nasdaq Bank Index (BKX) was up 33.19% at $152.45 in the same period.
West Region
In the West Region, there were 13 announced transactions through September 2025, which is one more than the 12 transactions announced through September 2024. Based on transactions with pricing data available, P/TBV averaged 89% in the West Region in 2024. Based on the four transactions with pricing data available, P/TBV averaged 151% in the West Region through September 2025.
Mid-Atlantic Region
In the Mid-Atlantic Region, there were eight announced transactions through September 2025, which is less than the 10 transactions announced through September 2024. Based on transactions with pricing data available, P/TBV averaged 97% in the Mid-Atlantic Region in 2024. Based on the seven transactions with pricing data available, P/TBV averaged 109% in the Mid-Atlantic Region through September 2025.
Midwest Region
In the Midwest Region, there were 50 announced transactions through September 2025, which is greater than the 36 transactions announced through September 2024. Based on transactions with pricing data available, P/TBV averaged 142% in the Midwest Region in 2024. Based on the 10 transactions with pricing data available, P/TBV averaged 145% in the Midwest Region through September 2025.
Northeast Region
In the Northeast Region, there were seven announced transactions through September 2025, which is greater than the three transactions announced through September 2024. Based on transactions with pricing data available, P/TBV averaged 137% in the Northeast Region in 2024. Based on the three transactions with pricing data available, P/TBV averaged 103% in the Northeast Region through September 2025.
Southeast Region
In the Southeast Region, there were 25 announced transactions through September 2025, which is greater than the 18 transactions announced through September 2024. Based on transactions with pricing data available, P/TBV averaged 143% in the Southeast Region in 2024. Based on the 13 transactions with pricing data available, P/TBV averaged 172% in the Southeast Region through September 2025.
Southwest Region
In the Southwest Region, there were 23 announced transactions through September 2025, which is greater than the 14 transactions announced through September 2024. Based on transactions with pricing data available, P/TBV averaged 142% in the Southwest Region in 2024. Based on the nine transactions with pricing data available, P/TBV averaged 162% in the Southwest Region through September 2025.
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- 1“US unemployment rate near 4-year high as labor market hits stall speed,” reuters.com, September 5, 2025.