Navigating Geopolitical Risk Through Operational Resilience
April 20, 2026Geopolitical risk is no longer an occasional disruption. It’s a persistent operating condition that can reshape supply chains, costs, trade decisions, and leadership priorities. Our panelists will break down business pressure points organizations are facing and share how to strengthen operational resilience while making decisions during times of uncertainty. We’ll discuss tax and audit considerations, helping leaders connect today’s operational strategy with tomorrow’s reporting and compliance requirements.
Key Takeaways
- Economic & Market Backdrop: The U.S. economy has faced significant challenges over the decades, including the tech bubble, the financial crisis, and the COVID-19 pandemic. Current risks include tariff volatility, workforce productivity, oil price spikes, and consumer sentiment shifts.
- Tariff Impacts: Tariffs, which peaked at 30% in 2025, have caused significant economic disruptions, including inventory surges and GDP anomalies. Current tariffs average 12% but remain unstable, affecting businesses and consumers differently.
- Oil Prices & Inflation: Oil price volatility, driven by geopolitical events like the Strait of Hormuz shutdown, has a direct impact on inflation and consumer spending. Recent spikes have reversed inflation trends, disproportionately affecting lower-income households.
- Workforce & Productivity: U.S. GDP growth relies heavily on workforce and productivity increases. With declining working-age population growth, driven by lower birth rates and reduced immigration, productivity enhancements through technology like AI are critical.
- Geopolitical Risks to Supply Chains: Industries are shifting from efficiency-focused models to risk management strategies, including inventory front-loading and supplier diversification, to mitigate geopolitical uncertainties.
- Energy Transition Challenges: Despite discussions on renewables, the U.S. lacks sufficient tax incentives, regulatory pressures, and prolonged high pricing to drive significant shifts toward renewable energy infrastructure.
- Consumer Sentiment & Economic Participation: Consumer sentiment has reached historic lows, reflecting a “K-shaped economy” where the top 10% of earners drive 50% of economic activity, leaving lower-income groups struggling.
Want more insights and in-depth findings? Read our FORsights™, “Geopolitical Risk: When Uncertainty Is the Operating Model.”
Presenter(s)
Joseph Perfetto, Toug Plilar, Jonathan Stomberger, Brian Matlock, Jeff Layman